Uncovering the strengths and weaknesses of an ensemble of quantile mapping methods for downscaling precipitation change in Southern Africa

Southern Africa. We assessed quantile mapping strengths and weaknesses in climate downscaling based on global models projections. An ensemble of methods is used: six using parametric transformations, three with non-parametric transformations one method theoretical distributions transformations. Seventeen indices related to precipitation are applied the locations 15 UNESCO biosphere reserves. The validated a cross-validation procedure. results projections for two different future scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 analysed their contribution overall uncertainty quantified. Quantile stationary assumptions also investigated. relative error shows that both an exponential-type transformation have general good skill correcting biases. low extremes. analysis methods’ reveals largest contributors whereas some cases, highest share. higher high extremes compared seem robust. indicate tendency region towards dryer conditions intensified events. However, this trend contains strong intra-regional variations.